The oil will bring a lot of problems into the stability of the world economy
The oil will bring a lot of problems into the stability of the world economy
The World economy recession if oil costs $150 for 1 barrel waits, warn in Merrill Lynch. Against conflict growth in the Near East cost of hydrocarbons already comes nearer to $120.
If the price for oil exceeds a historical maximum in $150 for barrel and certain time will keep on this mark, the world recession will become at the real risk. At oil cost in $200 for a barrel the recession looks almost obligatory, it is marked in state-of-the-art review Bank of America Merrill Lynch.
And such prospect is quite real. The price North Sea Brent on which basis cost of the Russian oil is defined, can reach short-term peak at level above $200 for barrel if we lose deliveries over 4 million barrels a day from the countries of the Near East and the North Africa, quotes Bloomberg according to the report of analysts of investment bank.
Work of the largest oil refining factory in Libya Ras Lanuf because of fights occurring nearby between the governmental armies and insurgents is already suspended, second-large Libyan factory is also closed.
On both factories 90 % of capacities of Libya on oil refining are almost necessary. Every day Libya extracts 1,6 million barrels of oil that makes 2 % of world extraction.
Oil continues to rise in price. During the morning auctions on Thursday cost of April futures on American WTI at the New York commodity exchange (NYMEX) has grown on 0,39 %, to $104,79 for barrel, on North Sea Brent at the London stock exchange ICE Futures on 0,22 %, to $116,19 for barrel.
The investment companies reconsider the forecasts towards increase of oil quotations. In Bank of America Merrill Lynch consider that the next three months against growth of world demand and an extraction suspension in Libya the price for oil of mark Brent can exceed $140 for barrel, and on the average on a year will make $108. In Goldman Sachs have raised the price forecast on Brent in the second quarter for $4,50, to $105 for barrel. Management of the power information of the USA (EIA) has risen the forecast of the average annual price for North Sea oil for $9, to $102 for barrel.
Our official forecast at the average price for oil $100 barrel. A critical mark $120 for barrel, already at such price arise serious risks for world economy delay, group economist Deutsche Bank in Russia Yaroslav Lisovolik speaks.
But it is not necessary to hasten with drama conclusions, experts speak. One business to close factories to Libya, another matter to destroy. Besides, we don't know, what will be reaction that occurs in the Near East. Unlike problems with the foodstuffs it is easy enough to provide the additional offer of oil, a question in, whether the OPEC will want it, Moiseyev explains. Neither manufacturers of oil, nor consumers aren't interested in its high cost.
All perfectly understand that when the price will pass for $130-140 for barrel, for many countries consumers of oil it becomes excessive. It will lead to rise in price of the goods by which manufacture oil, to their noncompetitiveness is used. Economy will be stagnate that, in turn, will lead to falling of demand and reduction of prices on oil, partner Strategy Partners, the head of practice of thermal power station Peter Panov explains. By the end of 2011 cost of hydrocarbons can already return to $100 for barrel as the current rise in prices is caused by speculative factors, the expert hopes.
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