Karolinska Institute: China, India Per Capita Income To Overtake United States By 2048
Hans Rosling, a 61-year old professor of global health at Swedens Karolinska Institute
, forecast that India and China will overtake United States and Great Britain in terms of income per person by July 2048.Rosling, who uses analyzes data through moving bubbles and other objects that bring some of the most complex trends to life presented his latest findings at the recent TED conference.
In his speech, which was serialized in The Economic Times, he stated that the developed world will not continue to dominate forever. He said that the West, and the United States in particular, are beset with three fundamental problems which are far bigger than they appear: the first of which is the trade unbalance, more imports than exports something which has not changed for a while; the Federal Reserve balance sheet which has only been going down over the last decade or so; and a clear oil addiction. The West consumes far too much power for its own good.
In comparing this with India, he stated that there were three primary factors in Indias favor: rich human resource capital and Inequalities which unlike China and some other countries are favorable. In China, in order to develop rural China, money and goods have to travel over a 1000 kilometers. In India though, the disparity lies only within a state and hence a smaller distance has to be traversed geographically. This is Indias advantage.
He also commented on the specter of trade barriers and the potential for trade war as emerging economies become larger. I am worried about is the reaction of the western world when they see India and China become bigger, what really worries me is a possible war. I also see new, subtle trade barriers emerge. For instance, they are calling products manufactured by India and China as contaminated, and are getting experts and researchers to prove that. These trade barriers are very subtle. If the west becomes wary of India and Chinas success one thing to certainly watch out for is the imparting of high duties on Indian and Chinese goods as a counter measure. They could also show Indian and Chinese manufacturers in poor light showing them as unsafe, unhygienic options for consumption products. The prospect of a trade war is very real and would hinder the chances of China and India to reach parity and overtake income levels in the West.
Climate may also be a problem. If both India and China have climate which is not congenial to the produce of agricultural goods, then this will stunt their development. Lastly, the probability of war and the probability of how India and Chinas rise might make the West envious of its success could be a challenge in challenging the West. But if these elements do not come into play, China and India will overtake the United States in terms of average per capita income within 40 years.
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