Day Trading: When To Fold
Imagine this situation: you are having a great day trading the ES
, and it's only 11 AM. You have been hitting every trade on the money and garnered more points than any day in the past six months.So what's the problem? Why not keep on trading and see how much money you can rack up?
From the onset, let me say that this is not going to be an objective discussion, nor are my conclusions in any way scientific, mathematical, or common sense. Do you think I've lost my mind?
If I had banked my best day in six months by 11 AM, I go golfing. See? I told you my answer would not make sense. Ive had days just like the one I am describing, and the end results can sometimes be disappointing. If you have ever read any of my writing, you'll know that I consider day trading a function of probability. I still do. But perhaps I am a bit superstitious when it comes to days where I have piled up a ton of points early on. Here is the thesis I have learned for my trading: when I have successfully traded five or six trades and not lost, I stop. There are all sorts of clichs that would apply; a bird in the hand is worth two in the bush; you gotta know when to holdem, and know when to fold em. I could go on with these unscientific explanations for my behavior at length. As you may have already guessed, on days when I am especially hot in the morning, my afternoon is a letdown.
I can remember one day in particular that I had traded a substantial account up 35% in three hours. By the end of the day, I had only eked out a modest gain. I can only speak for myself, but I am convinced that my psychological outlook on trading changes when I am overly successful. I would hope that most of the trades I take are well above 50% in probability, but I realize now that five or six consecutive winning trades are simply a aberration of probability. I also know that the rest of my trades will remain a function of probability, so I should stay roughly the same or increase my point total. I never do because I become convinced all my trading ideas will pan out. I lose my perspective, and expect every trade to succeed. I always need to stay humble to trade effectively.
At one point in my career I used to attribute my disappointing afternoons to bad karma; I was like the Chicago Cubs, a baseball club near and dear to my heart. For whatever reason, once I get a huge lead, I err. It's not karma, as I have gotten older and more experienced I have learned that my trade selection process breaks down and I enter low probability trades with the expectation of high probability gains. These two variables do not work together; it's the old garbage in, garbage out theory.
About 10 years ago I started becoming a student of the psychological and emotional factors traders face throughout the course of a trading session. As I examined my own trading, I noticed a variety of emotions throughout the course of the day. Then it happened again, I was way up before noon and fumbled the ball in the afternoon session. But this time, I was acutely aware of the problem. It didn't help; I still squandered my big day, but I realized what I was trading improperly. It was a great lesson. I haven't squandered a big day since. After two or three big failures, I suppose I am trainable. The probability in trading remains constant, it's the trader who changes his or her outlook. My solution to this dilemma was simple. Since that day, whenever I am having a particularly good day I stop. I retire on top, and refuse to be the boxer who fought one too many fights.
Psychological factors take a long time to assimilate, and I spent years in denial. I know now to bank a big day and start another tomorrow. It's the only solution that works for me.
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