subject: Horse Racing - Welsh National Preview [print this page] The way the weather has been recently means we may be looking at a postponed Welsh National, but fingers crossed the temperatures begin to rise for what is one of the best handicaps of the season for spread bettors. Last years winner, Notre Pere, was something of a shock and became the first Irish trained horse ever to win this marathon slog. The race is traditionally run on very soft ground which often results in the Sporting Index traders pricing up monster winning distance spreads. One of the most famous wide distance victories was that of Carvills Hill in 1991, who produced a sensational performance to beat subsequent Grand National winner Party Politics by 20 lengths conceding 19lbs. He was a nine-year-old, but spread bettors will be interested to learn that all of the last five winners have been six or seven.
Top weights dont find it easy to win this race and only two of the last ten winners have carried 11stone or more; although they have come in two of the last three years. Halcon Generlardais is going for his second Welsh National and those spread punters playing him on the win index will point to his fantastic record at this track with form figures reading 321 all in this race. He is a few pounds lower than last year as well so is sure to attract support on the day.
Le Beau Bai is almost certain to go off favourite following his 21 length victory here last month. However, the ground needs to be bottomless for this six-year-old and his supporters on the spreads will be praying for the heavens to open with rain, not snow. The Welsh National has been a decent trial for the big one at Aintree in recent years two of the last six winners have doubled up at Liverpool and last years well beaten 9/2 favourite Mon Mome, of course, went on to win the Grand National in April at 100/1.
Buyers of SPs with Sporting Index will take encouragement from the fact that only one favourite has been successful in the past decade, but it doesnt normally go to a massive priced outsider either. Notre Pere, at 16/1, is the biggest priced winner in the last ten years and everything else has been between 100/30 and 14/1. For those spread bettors who like to follow certain trainers in these big races, Paul Nicholls and Nigel Twiston-Davies have both won this twice, but neither can emulate David Pipes dad, Martin, who won this five times between 1988 and 1993.
The weather will have a big effect on the winning distances spread, but its difficult to find any consistent pattern in this race. Notre Pere won by 7 lengths 12 months ago and there have been four winning margins of that or bigger since 1999. LAventure, who won this in 2005 for Paul Nicholls, is set to run again this time around and winning distance spread buyers will be hoping for a similar result as she destroyed the field to win by a distance. However, two years ago Miko de Beauchene managed to hold off Halcon Generlardais by just a head.
by: Chris William
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