subject: Betting On The Cheltenham Festival: Some Trends [print this page] Betting On The Cheltenham Festival: Some Trends
I've been following the Cheltenham Festival for some time, and have noticed a few trends that might help you with your betting. Let's have a look at some of the top races, and how you can make some more money from researching the contests...The Supreme Novice Hurdle8 of the last 12 winners in the Supreme Novice Hurdle have been Irish, and many of them have not been favourites. Indeed, omens are not good for Cue Card, who is currently the bookies' favourite at 9/4. Many previous winners won their last race, and Cue Card did not, so if you're going to lay a horse on the first day, lay Cue Card. He hasn't run for nearly 100 days, and almost every winner of the Supreme Novice Hurdle has come off the back of a win within 45 days.So - remember the Irish, and maybe even favour the French if there are any, and look at those that have won within the last 45 days. Also, try to look beyond the bookie's favourite.The Champion HurdleAn amazing 23 of the last 27 winners of the Champion Hurdle have entered the race after having won. Indeed, 16 of the last 22 have course history, and the last 16 have all run in the same year. Five year olds barely ever win this race, and defending champions hardly ever defend it successfully, which bodes badly for Binocular. Again - look at the Irish, they have an excellent record in the Champion Hurdle, but the key is looking for a horse who won his last race, has already won at Cheltenham before, and is age 6 or 7.The ArkleAgain, we're looking at horses who won - or came close to winning - in their last race. The highest-rated hurdlers are usually there or thereabouts in the Arkle, so look at ratings - anything over 142 has a chance, and ignore the bookies - favourites often don't win the Arkle - just 2 in 18 years. However, don't think you'll get long odds, you will need to look at bookie odds of 10/1 or under for your winner.National Hunt Chase Challenge CupThis is another case of avoiding younger horses - 5 and 6 year olds don't win this race, and again, you have to look for horses who finished first or second in their previous race. Ratings need to be around 130 if you're going to pick a winner here, and generally speaking, the winning odds are in double figures.No matter which horses you're going to back at Cheltenham this year, research the race thoroughly, and understand what wins and why! Most of all, don't throw your cash away.
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