subject: Shortage of Oil in the World Can Lead to the Next Global Recession [print this page] Shortage of Oil in the World Can Lead to the Next Global Recession
The crisis phenomena connected with a lack of hydrocarbons, can already begin very soon - after 2011.
Actually, the alternative point of view was present at forecasts of many economists and oil industry workers even prior to the beginning of present recession. Many referred to authority of the professor of geophysics of Mariona Habberta which in due time have correctly predicted peak of oil recovery in the USA in 1970. Under the theory finished by its supporters, the world peak of extraction or has already been reached in 2005-2006, or it is necessary on the near future.
The bases so to speak as it seemed, at them were. All first half of 2008 the price for oil actively grew, having reached peak by July (147 dollars for barrel). However then the prices have failed because of the beginning of a sharp phase of crisis and the explosive growth of a dollar exchange rate.
Crisis has changed the relation to a situation in the oil market, but not to the best. Even in the conditions of economic recession of the price were quickly enough restored at level of 60-70 dollars for barrel. It not so is a lot of in comparison with last year's maxima, but nevertheless much more, than, say, in 2005 when the prices in 50 dollars for barrel were considered as the high. Thus absence of the accessible credit together with falling of the prices have played the extremely negative role in the future deliveries of raw materials to the market. Because of crisis many oil projects in particular calculated on the future, have been frozen.
However, as show calculations IEA, in 2008 on available deposits extraction recession has begun. The organization has analysed the data from 800 objects of oil extracting worldwide and has come to a conclusion that reduction of volumes last year has made 6,4 percent. It even despite the record prices in the middle of the year.
Certainly, speech doesn't go about universal extraction taking into account again opened deposits. If to consider all oil extracted in the world, including made of combustible slates growth last year has made, according to the annual report of oil company British Petroleum, 0,4 percent. At the same time consumption was reduced to 0,6 percent.
At an invariance of present volume of extraction oil for 87 years will suffice Iran. Stocks of Russia will run low for 22 years, the USA - for 12 years, China - for 11, and Norway - for 8.
Thus, the global economy gets to a trap. In case restoration the prices - not only on oil grow also, but also on other raw materials begins. However more expensive fuel compels consumers to buy less, and in manufacturers - to rise the price of own production or to incur losses. Economic activity decreases again.
The exit from similar deadlock is impossible without scale replacement of oil with other energy sources, in particular, energy of nuclear disintegration. However it is a question of many years, and can, and decades. How the world market will cope with shortage of deliveries the next years while it is not clear. Therefore experts of the market, from exchange analysts to the Saudi ministers, predict returning of the prices to oil to level of 150 dollars for barrel.
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